The war in Iran could lead to a ‘guaranteed global recession’ because of one chokepoint that is crucial to the world economy, analyst says

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Sentiment towards BP and Shell has strengthened significantly off the back of oil price spikes. But it’s a complex picture. Neither company has production in Iran. But BP’s significant production in Iraq and Abu Dhabi risks being bottlenecked through disruption to the Strait of Hormuz. For Shell the same applies to its LNG facilities in Qatar and the Emirates. If a moderate sustainable regime is established in Iran, there is the potential for substantial derisking, and for prices to be rebased downwards. If sanctions are removed, it also opens the door for investment into Iranian oil fields.

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